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STATEMENT BY HELEN ZILLE
LEADER OF THE DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE

“Landslide victories show that DA is on track to win the Western Cape”

Release, immediate: Thursday, 26 March 2009

The Democratic Alliance (DA) has recorded landslide victories in by-elections in Mitchell’s Plain and Parow. This is a clear sign that the DA is on course to win the Western Cape on 22 April. If all our voters turn out on election day, we could win the province with an outright majority.

The result of ward 79 (Mitchell’s Plain), where the DA captured the seat previously held by the Independent Democrats (ID), is particularly significant. The DA polled 79.4% (up from 37.8% in 2006), while the ID polled 8% (down from 38.7% in 2006).

The resounding victory in Mitchell’s Plain is an endorsement of the DA’s commitment to non-racialism and to improving the circumstances of all through our governance in Cape Town.

The Mitchell’s Plain by-election result also indicates that the ID is haemorrhaging support in its former Cape Town strongholds. Opposition voters are consolidating their forces within the DA.

In ward 2 (Parow), the DA won 96.5% of the vote (an increase from 83.1% in 2006). The ANC and COPE received 1.3% and 2.2% of the vote respectively. The DA is retaining the support of long-standing DA voters and, contrary to the perception of some analysts, COPE is not a factor in the Western Cape.

The other parties can spread as much misinformation about the DA as they like. But the people have spoken. They can see for themselves that life improves where the DA governs. The results of the election on 22 April will show that the DA is the only serious alternative to the ANC.

Final word! We are going to win ward 13 in Kempton Park. With one VD to go, we are some 500 votes in the lead. This is my last post for the evening. Tomorrow I will put up a video of a press conference Ryan will be holding, on the C2C videos blog, to explain the consequences of today’s by-election to the media. Helen is going to put out a statement on the results anytime now. If I manage to stay awake, I will put it up. Otherwise, catch it here tomorrow.

One final point on the Mitchell’s Plain by-election, Here are the absolute numbers:

• DA: 5 040
• ID: 505
• ANC: 439
• COPE: 164
• UP: 85
• AUB: 61
• CAPE: 50

In order to appreciate just how good those numbers are, compare them to the absolute number of votes the DA got in this Mitchell’s Plain ward in 2006:

• ID: 2 598
• DA: 2 532
• ANC: 820
• ACDP: 256
• Other: 499

The ID’s vote has completely collapsed while the DA’s has virtually doubled. The DA’s vote has increased in both percentage terms (from 37.8% to 79.4%, an increase of 41.6%) and in absolute terms (from 2 532 votes to 5 040 votes, an increase of 2 508 votes).

An update on the Gauteng by-elections.

In ward 16 (Kempton Park) the full results are in:

• DA: 85%
• FF+: 7.6%
• ANC: 6.1%
• ACDP: 1.3%
• CDA: 0.1%

We got 78.5% in the 2006 local government elections, so we have increased our support in this DA stronghold. We are still waiting on ward 13.

Let me try to put that 79% into context.

Ryan says you can draw the following conclusions from the Mitchell’s Plain by-election:

• First, the DA will win an absolute majority in the metro and can win an absolute majority in the province provided all DA voters vote on election day;
• Two, COPE is irrelavent in the Western Cape and its aura of significance is seriously dented;
• Three, the ID has been reduced to an irrelevancy in South African politics and will struggle to come third in the Western Cape, and might come fourth; and
• Finally, these results will make DA voters everywhere believe that we can make a huge impact on 22 April and we must use these results to motivate DA supporters to turnout in record numbers on election day.

There you have it. Each and every volunteer needs to do there bit to make that last point a relaity. Spread Ryan’s message!

We have the full results for the Mitchell’s Plain by-election. All eight VDs are in. The DA has secured a truly remarkable victory:

• DA: 79.4%
• ID: 8.0%
• ANC: 6.9%
• COPE: 2.6%
• UP: 1.3%
• AUB: 1.0%
• CAPE: 0.8%

To put those results into context, here are the results in the Mitchell’s Plain, for the 2004 (national elections) and 2006 (local government elections). The 2004 figures are in brackets.

NNP: (33.1%) 0%
DA: (21.6%) 37.8%
ANC: (19.8%) 12.2%
ID: (16%) 38.7%
ACDP: (4.1%) 3.8%
Other: (5.4%) 7.4%

What an absolute landslide. The ID has been destroyed, it’s 38% reduced to just 8%; and COPE is nowhere.

We have two more VD in for Mitchell’s Plain, which brings the total to 6 out of 8. There are two more VDs outstanding before we have the full results.

The cumulative total for the 6 is as follows:

• DA: 80.2%
• ID: 7.8%
• ANC: 6.5%
• COPE: 2.3%
• UP: 1.2%
• AUB: 1.2%
• CAPE: 0.7%

I can’t tell you how excited everyone is here, we are all huddled around Johan’s laptop, as a result comes in, it’s like your favourite football team just scored the winning goal. Amazing stuff.

If we get above 80% in Mitchell’s Plain no one who voted on our poll got it right. In fact, I didn’t even design the poll right – it couldn’t accomodate a percentage higher than 80%. Now we know why Johan voted last and voted 70% to 80%, the man knows a big victory when he sees it. Cunning.

Greg says in Kempton Park, Ward 13, we have done exceptionally well among black voters, winning as much as 12.5% in one of the VDs – Phomolong.

In many ways that result is just as encouraging as what is happening in Mitchell’s Plain.

What I am about to give you is a cumulative result for Mitchell’s Plain.

In other words, it is the total sum of the all the VD results we have so far for the Mitchell’s Plain by-election (4 VDs out of 8, so, half of them):

• DA: 81.4%
• ID: 6.7
• ANC: 6%
• COPE: 2.2%
• CAPE: 0.9%
• UP: 1.3%
• AUB: 1.4%

Ryan says, “The DA is now in a position to win an outright majority in the Western Cape, but we will only achieve this if every DA voter turns out to vote on 22 April. It can be done. Yes we can!“

We have the full by-election results for Parow. Stand by for this:

• DA: 96.5%
• COPE: 2.2%
• ANC: 1.3%

In absolute number of votes, those percentages translate into these numbers:

• DA: 5 030
• COPE: 117
• ANC: 66

Now that is an indisputable, utter and complete landslide. Wikipedia should add that to its list.

The  second Mitchell’s Plain VD is coming in. Results as follows:

• DA: 88.6%
• ID: 4.2%
• COPE: 4.0%
• ANC: 2.7%
• CAPE: 0.4%
• UP: 0%
• AUB: 0%

More of the same. Amazing.

We are getting over 90% in Parow, in fact, the first of six polling stations has finalised its result: 95% for the DA.

Landslide.

Right, I’m back. Some results are starting to come in. Things are looking fantastic.

The first Voting District  in Mitchell’s Plain is in. The results are as follows:

• DA: 80.6%
• ID: 6.7%
• ANC: 4.7%
• ABU: 4.4%
• COPE: 2.3%
• CAPE: 1.3%

Now, remember that is just one VD, but that is an amazing result. 80%. Jeepers. Look at COPE, beaten by The African Unity Bond. Ouch.

I’m taking a break for an hour or so, will give you an update thereafter!

One last look at the worm. It’s work is done. It ended up on 68.7%.

So what does that mean?

Well, the worm measures the turnout of DA FORS (DA FORS are people who indicated they were favourbale towards the DA when canvassed – they were ‘for’ the DA). In every by-election we aim to turnout 65% of DA FORS, that is what the black projected turnout line is. If you achieve that, you have done very well. So, we didn’t just achieve it (something you do, on average, once every five or so by-elections), we never dropped below it and ended up beating it! A really great effort, which will no doubt be reflected in the result.

Here is the final poll count. 79 of you voted and this is what you thought:

• 1 person says the DA will get between 30% and 40%;
• 14 people say between 40% and 50%;
• 22 between 50% and 60%;
• 31 between 60% and 70%; and
• 11 between 70% and 80%

So, the 60% to 70% bracket has it, with 31 people voting for it (or 39%). I voted for this bracket, so did Greg and Ryan. Johan didn’t, he voted for the 70% to 80% bracket.

He could be right. But then he did only vote 5 minutes ago!

That’s that. The last vote is in and the polls are closed. Now, time to work out how we did. Johan is going to get a final tables count and I will post a final worm and some final figures just now.

In case you were wondering, the official results are only released tomorrow but we can get the preliminary results from the polling station when counting is over, so we should be able to tell you the result before midnight. Hang in there.

Some people have asked for updates on the other by-elections. I have asked Greg for some info, here he comes with his file: “Kempton Park ward 16 we should win very comfortably; Kempton Park ward 13 is much closer and, at this stage, it is hard to call a clear winner; in Nelson Mandela Bay about 80% of our supporters have come out to vote, it looks like the ANC might be a couple of hundred votes ahead but it is hard to tell, at any rate we will exceed our tally from the last general election (and should be the only party to hold our support); and finally Parow is headed for a landslide DA victory.“

The mighty worm, our hero, how well it has done today. Not once has it dipped below our projected vote line. For those of you who don’t know about the worm, that is very rare. (Indeed, I am worried now that I have set the worm up for failure, for it might be while before the it has another day like today.) Greg has gone all Peggy Noonan about it, he says: “The worm has slipped the surly bonds of earth and touched the face of victory“. We like the worm.

I’ve turned the tables on Gareth and got him to share his experience of the day on camera. He has been relentless in bringing you up-to-the-minute news about the by-elections today. A truly remarkable effort, and a great idea! Check out his comments. Ryan.

Makes sense now, doesn’t it?

One hour to go, and everyone is still here calling. It becomes exponetially harder to get people to the voting station now, but every vote counts and so the DA is still hard at work, on the ground and here at NHO. Johan says we are still in the lead by some distance, with the ID lurking in the distant background, in second place.

Right, the worm is, as Greg says, “being very disciplined“. What he means is that it is staying above our projected vote line. Usually the worm tends to dip towards the end of the day, as less and less people go to the polls and more and more go home to sleep. But not today, the worm has been almost entirely steady, from early this morning right through to now. If it carries on like this, the result really will be special.

Johan is capturing the 7pm table counts. He says that we have exceeded our 2006 figure. In fact, we are running at 128%. That figure is significant for two reasons. First, and obviously, it means that a lot of people are voting but, secondly, it means that the DA has a good chance of increasing its vote in absolute terms and not just percentage terms. That is important, because it means the DA inspired more people to vote than did in the 2006 election – an excellent performance. 1 and a half hours to go!

There are hundreds of people who make any by-election possible. They work tirelessly and you don’t get to see very much of them, but they play a critical part in making things happen.

I am not going to try and list them all here, because I am bound to miss someone, so let me say that in broad terms they include the following: hoppers (the people who volunteer to drive people to the polling stations); party agents (who monitor voting the polling stations); polling station captains (who run and manage the DA at polling stations); the campaign manager (and here I will mention a name: Grant Pascoe, he has been brilliant); canvassing callers; zone controllers (they control the GOTV zone, issue travel sheets and so on) and, of course, volunteers and activists who come out on the day to drive up support for the DA and get people to the polls.

The DA is lucky to have such a dedicated group of public representatives, staff members and activists. They all know that every vote counts and, on a day like this, it really does count!

Another poll update: 70 votes and they break down like this:

• 1 person says the DA will get between 30% and 40%;
• 14 people say between 40% and 50%;
• 20 between 50% and 60%;
• 26 between 60% and 70%; and
• 9 between 70% and 80%

A little surge for the 60% to 70% bracket there, it has opened up a 6 vote lead.

You have until 9 pm to cast your vote, then I’m shutting the poll down. So, make your virtual mark.

Both Johan and Ryan have now both said we are on track to win by a landslide or, to be a bit more conservative, that as things stand right now, we are winning by a landslide. Politicians often use that phrase: “a landslide victory“. I wonder what Google has to say about it?

Wikipedia is first up, as usual, check out its entry here.  It lists a whole lot of landslide victories throughout history but, if you ask me, they all seem quite close. Nothing like what is happening in Mitchell’s Plain.

Here is the latest worm. It has grown, as it does, and is still above our projected votes line but the gap is closer.

This, however, doesn’t mean things are slowing down. As you will see, our projected line climbs steeply at about 5 o’clock (the 5 o’clock rush) and so to maintain steady growth through that period in real terms and still be above the projected line is no mean feat. It’s all good!

It has emerged that the ANC is allegedly blackmailing voters in Mitchell’s Plain.

One of the people canvassed by the DA reported that she was approached by the ANC and told that, if she did not vote for the ruling party, it would make sure her husband’s grant was canceled. The person has agreed to and signed an affidavit to this effect. The DA is going to go big on this issue.

Watch this interview with Ryan for more:

With only a few hours to go, everyone is at their most tense. It’s now make or break time; whatever happens in the next few hours will define the result. Most of the brains trust just had a brief discussion here at NHO. From left to right: Johan van der Berg (National by-election manager); Ryan Coetzee MP (DA CEO); David Maynier (Western Cape Campaign Manager) and Greg Krumbock MP (DA Executive Director).

Right, this is the 50th blog for today. 3 hours to go. And all the news is good from Mitchell’s Plain. I just heard Johan suggest that our turnout might just have increased over the last hour.  Will give a worm update shortly. How are you guys finding the real-time updates out there? Good idea? Bad idea? I am playing with the idea of doing a similar thing for Election Day. My fingers will have recovered by then.

I asked Johan a few questions: how things were going in the by-election and what our turnout is looking like. He says we have exceeded 90% of our 2006 vote, check out the rest of the interview here:

The CEO and the Deputy CEO dealing the vital issue of ordering supper for a hungry staff contingent.

No better men for the job I say!

Mike says:

“I am on holiday in Mexico. I am sitting on the beach glued to my laptop.” (You gotto love the internet, Hi there Mike!)

He asks how things are going in the other Wards. I put the question to Greg, he responds as follows: “We are romping away in Kempton Park Ward 16; there is a very tight, neck-and-neck race in Ward 13 Kempton Park; we are heading for a landslide victory in Parow and set to exceed our 2006 vote in the Nelson Mandela Metro (an ANC seat)“

Johan estimates that at 3 o’clock this afternoon we had already exceeded 75% of the number of people who came out to vote for the DA in 2006. Now that is a scary stat. Well, scary if  you are an ID supporter. Great for us. He will let me know where we stood in relation to the 2006 figure at 5 o’clock, as soon as he has worked it out. Must be close to it, or have exceeded it by now.

The worm continues to nudge forward, still above our predicted outcome line, still looking strong.

Come on the worm!

Another poll update: 64 votes and they break down like this:

• 1 person says the DA will get between 30% and 40%;
• 12 people say between 40% and 50%;
• 20 between 50% and 60%;
• 22 between 60% and 70%; and
• 9 between 70% and 80%

60% to 70% still holds the edge, just.

I voted that we would get between 60% and 70%.

Come on 60% to 70%!

Right, the 5 o’clock rush is appraoching fast, here is how things stand: the leader board is still the same: DA first, ID second (by some distance), then the ANC, then… eventually… COPE.

Things tend to slow down in midday, so the number of people coming to all parties tables slows but then it is followed by a mad rush. Watch this space.

Graham Gersbach just posted the 50th comment today on this blog! A worthy 50th comment indeed. Here it is:

“Going to Kempton Park by-election day HQ – can’t stay away much longer. Has been impossible to work today. Missing the excitement.”

Good man!

The Cape Argus has run a story about a supposed “brawl” at the by-election. The full story is subscription locked but basically the ID has complained that its supporters are being intimidated by the DA’s supporters. The ID is pretty good at this kind of thing – generating complaints and whinging about things for which is there no evidence (See Ryan’s statement from earlier).

It’s the sign of a party that is losing, and knows it. Yawn. Nice picture of Helen though.

SAPA just posted the following story (below) on the by-elections, Mitchell’s Plain in particular. Just look at the disproportionate coverage given to COPE, compared to how well they are actually doing. In fact, I would say this story serves as a good illustration of how the media have treated COPE since its inception: as a general rule their coverage is disproportionately bigger than COPE’s actual support warrants.

Read the rest of this entry »

With the last crucial hours of voting approaching fast, remember polls close at 9pm, everyone who is helping out at NHO was called round for one final pep talk from Johan van der Berg, the DA’s national by-election manager. Johan made the point quite simply: the DA has done well up to this point, but in order to carry that showing through, we need to stick at it until the last vote is cast. All hands on deck.

The worm continues to grow. As we enter the final four hours of voting (polls close at 9pm) the worm is beginning to stretch out, and remains above our predicted results line, which is good. The 5 o’clock rush might affect all of that, all though not too dramatically. Let’s see.

Ryan just released the following statement to the Western Cape media:

STATEMENT BY RYAN COETZEE, MP
DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE CEO

“DA on track to win Mitchell’s Plain by-election – ID and ANC smear tactics not working”

Release, immediate: Wednesday, 25 March 2009

The Democratic Alliance (DA) is on track for a big win in the by-election currently taking place in Ward 79, Mitchell’s Plain.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that both the ANC and Independent Democrats (ID) are resorting to smear tactics in a desperate attempt to divert attention away from the DA’s likely success today. ID and ANC supporters have spent much of the day trying to discredit the DA by, amongst other things, alleging that the DA’s candidate has resigned and is being sought by the police – both of which are untrue.

The voters of Ward 79 will see these smears for what they are, and the results of the by-election will be the final word.

57 of you have now voted on our poll. Here’s what you think:

• 1 person says the DA will get between 30% and 40%;
• 9 people say between 40% and 50%;
• 20 between 50% and 60%;
• 18 between 60% and 70%; and
• 9 between 70% and 80%

So, basically, 38 of you – or 67% – think the DA will get between 50% and 70%. Well, you will be glad to know that, as things stand, it looks like the DA could well end up with a total somewhere inside that bracket.

If you are using Internet Explorer, our poll widget might have slipped down the right hand sidebar to the bottom of the blog. Sorry about that, a formatting problem we will get onto solving.

But don’t let that stop you from voting!

Here are some pictures from some of the Mitchell’s Plain voting stations, where the DA’s public representatives are hard at work getting out the vote:

More table counts have come in and things are still looking good (despite a number of reports that the ID is resorting to rather dubious tactics to try and up their vote). Johan says we are still on track for a solid victory. As things stand right now, the DA is in the lead, the ID a somewhat distant second and then the ANC (with COPE in the far background, bringing up the rear).

In any municipal by-election the polling stations are open from 7am to 9pm. Being human, voters tend to leave voting late and the vast majority vote after work, from 5 o’clock onwards.

So what you normally find during a by-election is that there will be a massive influx of voters late in the day. This can affect the voting pattern up to that point (although not often because voters still voter proprtionally, so even if there are more, it doesn’t affect how the votes are split). This period is called the 5 o’clock rush and is often the determining factor in any by-election.

News from one of our other by-elections: in Ward 52 in the Nelson Mandela Metro. This wasn’t a DA seat, it was an ANC seat that the DA is now contesting, so it is not a DA stronghold and the DA would do well to increase its percentage because it would mean we had increased support for the party in what is effectively an ANC ward. According to our table counts the DA is doing very well, it is still behind the ANC but has managed to reduce the gap from around 100 votes to around 20. Great stuff.

SAPA just posted the following story: “SANCO WCape Backs Cope“.

It states: “The Western Cape branch of troubled civic organisation Sanco and the SA Cape Corps military union on Wednesday pledged support for Cope in the April elections in a move the party said could bring it some half-a-million votes. Sanco’s provincial secretary Veza Nethi told reporters the organisation had called on its 340,000 members in the Western Cape to vote for Cope on April 22, and also urged them to support the party in by-elections in Mitchell’s Plain and Bellville on Wednesday.”

Sanco isn’t exactly known as the world’s most organised union, so I’m not sure if its support is a blessing or a curse; one things for sure, if our table counts are anything to go by, its supporters in Mitchell’s Plain aren’t listening to it.

Some more news on COPE, they are tracking below 3% according to our table count. To give you some idea of just how bad that is, The Africa Bond of Unity Party (does anyone know what these guys stand for?) are almost level-pegging with them.

FYI, just found the Voice of the Cape story on the by-election, nothing new, but a good overview.

The worm has grown! Check it out, the DA continues to track above its predicted position at this point in time. The bigger the gap between the DA’s predicted position and its actual position, the better we are doing. (Although, of course, that is relative, because it depends on your prediction.)

DA CEO and MP Ryan Coetzee has just returned to NHO from Mitchell’s Plain, where he visited a few polling stations.

I asked him how things were looking:

Thought I would Google “Mitchell’s Plain” and see what came up. Some interesting stuff. Here is Mitchell’s Plain’s Wikipedia entry; if you want to go on holiday in Mitchell’s Plain, check this site out; and here is the City of Cape Town’s tourism page on Mitchell’s Plain. Who would have thought.

To date 48 of you have voted on our poll. Here’s what you think:

• 1 person says the DA will get between 30% and 40%;
• 9 people say between 40% and 50%;
• 17 between 50% and 60%;
• 13 between 60% and 70%; and
• 8 between 70% and 80%

Some consensus seems to be building around the 50% – 60% bracket (although 60% – 70% is pretty strong too). Anything above 50% will be a real victory, anything above that will be phenomenal.

Keep voting!

The latest table counts are in and everything seems to be going great.

Johan says the following: “There is no change really, it’s looking really, really good. Large numbers of people are coming to our tables [at each of the polling stations] and if things carry on this way, we are on track for a big victory. We just need to keep doing the right things”

Great stuff, well, keep doing everything right then. Simple stuff.

I asked one of our volunteers, Ian McDonald a couple of questions: why he supports the DA and, after having made a whole lot of calls this morning, what the feeling is on the ground in Mitchell’s Plain. He makes a number of points I suspect a whole lot of us agree with.

The ID seems to have given up the ghost at the Beacon Valley Community Centre polling station, they don’t even have a table there. The ID learnt the hard way, in 2004, that it takes more than media coverage to run a political party; if the morning’s results are anything to go by, it seems COPE are slowly learning the same lesson.

Graham Gersbach just asked:

“Any idea how things are going in the other by-elections and particularly the crucial wards 13 and 16 in Kempton Park, Ekurhuleni? Regards, Graham Gersbach (who has to work at his paying job today)”

I have just spoken to Greg, Graham, who is regularly checking-in with Gauteng. The one ward is a safe DA ward (16) and the other (13) is going to be very tight. And that is how things are going, in ward 16 things are looking good but in ward 13 things are very close.

There are other by-elections happening round the country, which the DA is competing in, none of the them as significant as Mitchell’s Plain, but I can tell you we are doing EXTREMELY well in Parrow, another DA strong hold.

Rose Rau, the DA’s Regional Director in the Western Cape Metro, has just told me about a rather daming assessment of COPE, relayed to her by one the DA’s polling station captains when reporting in: “It looks like COPE only had enough money for a half day by-election,” she was told, “cause they only just arrived.” Indeed, things are so bad, Rose says, that at one polling station the tiny minority party The Africa Bond of Unity (never heard of them before myself) appears to have more supporters than COPE.

Right, here is a picture of the famous worm! Well, at least one of the worms. This one tracks the DA’s support. The black line is our predicted support as the day unfolds, the small incomplete red line above it, at the bottom left, is our actual support. So, from what you can see so far, we are above the worm! Which is a good thing. It means we are doing better than we predicted!

Everything is going full stream ahead. Here is a brief clip of some of the volunteers (we have ten of them coming in today) who have kindly agreed to help with canvassing calls. The volunteer on the left is Ian McDonald one of the party’s most willing and active supporters! They are at work at the additional bank we have put up in the volunteer department. (P.S. While we are talking about canvassing, don’t forget our canvassing competition – a chance to win a lunch with Helen. See here!)

33 of you have voted on our poll so far.

• 6 of you say the DA will get between 40% and 50%;
• 11 between 50% and 60%;
• 9 between 60% and 70%; and
• 7 between 70% and 80%

No has predicted we will get less than 40%! I like that attitude, let’s hope the voters agree.

Keep those votes coming.

Hannie just posted the following comment:

“Hi Gareth, Are all the wards in the city more or less the same size, or is Mitchell’s Plain an important one size wise. I can see the important demographic reading we can get from today’s results, but just wondered if it is significant in another way.”

Here is Johan and Greg’s response: They are all roughly the same, so there is no real significance in terms of size. But they are all very big – there are 17 211 registered voters in Ward 79 – so, as a sample size, it is certainly significant and a great indicator of voter behaviour.

The latest table counts are in. The DA is still looking “remarkably strong” says Johan. Helen will be in Mitchell’s Plain this evening, from 7pm onwards. She will be meeting and greeting voters outside  a few (of the eight) polling stations in the ward. (Voting usually peaks in the evening, when people head to the stations after work.)

More updates! There is a LOT of interest in this by-election, I have just had a request for more frequent updates! I think my fingers are going to fall off! Right, I will type faster. Ruan asked what ‘the worm’ is (see comments on previous blog). Well, the worm is basically the DA’s tracking poll, we run it on all by-elections and have one for the national election as well. I am not going to give the figures from the worm right now, in case we have any sneeky supporters from other parties watching this blog (don’t want to give them too much help), but later I promise to try and post something. Watch this space.

All signs are things are going to plan. There is a great turn out to date and it seems like, of those people who have voted, the majority are casting their votes in favour of the Democratic Alliance. Which is the way it should be!

The DA’s Executive Director Greg Krumbock MP has just reminded me about the 1997 Kempton Park by-election, the first of several significant by-elections at the time which proved to be a significant turning point in the then-Democratic Party’s prospects ahead of the 1999 Election, when it took over the mantle of official opposition from the NP:  “That by-election was a harbinger for the 1999 result,” says Greg, “and there is every indication that Mitchell’s Plain will similarly give tangible proof that the polls pointing to the DA becoming the biggest party in the Western Cape are accurate and precsient.“  I couldn’t agree more.

Johan has just got a report in from the Littlewood Primary voting station (one of the eight in Ward 79). Apparently supporters are arriving singing DA songs and chanting the party’s name! That might sound like standard electioneering but let me assure you it’s not the kind of thing that spontaneously happens at a by-election. Great news!

I’ve set up a poll on the right hand side bar. You’ve read all the stories, you’ve seen the previous results, now, what do you think we ‘ll get?

And, here’s today’s Cape Times:

(I’ll try and find the story online but I think its subscriber locked.)

Here’s a rather cautionary story on the by-election from The Times, by a journalist called S’Thembiso Msomi. It conflates the DA’s prospects in the Western Cape with those in Mitchell’s Plain a number of times, but is fairly damning of the ID: “If the ID is crushed in Ward 79 today [Mitchell's Plain], the DA will be celebrating in the belief that this will be a precursor to De Lille being reduced to being a minor player in the province after the election.“

The latest table counts are in. Our national by-election manager Johan van der Berg says things are looking bad for the ID and that there is every indication that COPE is in dissaray.

At the other end of the spectrum, Johan says turnout is strong (2.4%) at 9am (which is good for those of you not famailiar with by-elections) and we are on track for a 40% poll (which is also good for a municipal by-election, they usually average around 20%). Everything still looking good!

FYI, Here are some background news stories on the by-election:

• Business Day
• Independent Online
• Cape Argus

Here are the results in the Mitchell’s Plain ward we are contesting today, for 2004 (national elections) and 2006 (local government elections). The 2004 figures are in brackets.

NNP: (33.1%) 0%
DA: (21.6%) 37.8%
ANC: (19.8%) 12.2%
ID: (16%) 38.7%
ACDP: (4.1%) 3.8%
Other: (5.4%) 7.4%

As you can see, the ID narrowly won the ward from the DA in the 2006 local government elections (by about 60 votes in absolute terms). Today’s by-election is occuring because the ID’s councillor resigned from the party and joined the DA. The DA is aiming to win more than 50% of the vote. If it manages to achieve that, the result will be deeply significant. Not only will it mean a significant shift in support towards the DA but that shift will be a good indicator of broader trends in the Cape Town metropole.

DA CEO Ryan Coetzee MP is among those at NHO helping out with the by-election. “Things are looking good“, says Ryan, “We have done everything right up to now and it is now up to the party to ensure that we turn out our supporters.“  NHO is awash with blue t-shirts!

We have set up some additional phone banks at NHO for our GOTV operation. GOTV stands for ‘Get Out The Vote’ and involves the DA phoning all those DA supporters canvassed by the party in the run-up to the by-election and making sure they get to their nearest polling station and vote, and vote DA! A number of DA volunteers have agreed to come in and help.

The first table counts are coming in and the DA is looking very good. There are eight polling stations in Mitchell’s Plain and the DA is off to a good start in all of them. Early indcations are COPE is struggling organisationally, it doesn’t even have a table at some stations.

We have started this blog, just for today. We will will use it to keep you updated on the critical Mitchell’s Plain by-election, which is happening today.

Mitchell’s Plain will be a bell-weather by-election; in other words, a good indicator of the voting trends and patterns that will define the 22 April election in the Western Cape.

We will give you regular updates, as and when they come in.

Keep refreshing and stay tuned!